BlackReef Holdings

Tuesday, 2 June 2009

Overview:

After Fridays big intraday move north US equities continued the push forwards with majors up around 2- 2.5%.  An interesting note is financials which during the afternoon turned negative then swung positive strongly into the close.  This break leads me to be pretty bullish.  Immediate target is 975 followed by a push to 1025 in the next few weeks.    

New Trades

Option trades:

C – Long June 4 Put at @$0.56

–          Breaking 2 month support on an up day in financials

BAX – Long June 47.5 Put at $0.35

–          Falling from top of recent range –  target bottom of range.

WFC – Long June 27 Call at $0.85

–          Rallying off support

XLF – Long June 13 Call at $0.31

–          Consolidation and breaking out

IPI – Long June 34 Call at $2

–          Ag names are breaking out

MCO – Long June 27 Put at 41

–          Failing to break recent resistance

Stock Trades:

–

FX Trades:

NZDUSD has smashed out of the park trading with a .65 handle.  Taken hedge off as it is hitting a big fib level.  Would be keen to buy on a retracement but am aware there is potential for further strength.

USDJPY traded with strong support – currently in no mans land. 

GBPJPY is skyrocketing as well.

With these currencies they all appear due for a retracement but I have a nagging feeling they will continue their current moves so will look to enter in small lots with tight stops.

Trade Track

Friday, 22^nd May, 2009

Overview:

Reasonable sell-off across the markets.  General depression in prices across most sectors.  Not a major sell off however with prices rebounding in the last half hour.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reasonable up day tomorrow however I haven’t positioned the portfolio particularly bullishly.  I expect next week to be down or sideways – which would be healthy for a continuation of the bulls.  An odd divergence occurred today in the form of strong dollar weakness but a dropping in commodity prices.  Equities down hard but the NZDUSD was still up – this is very odd.

New Trades

Option trades:

RHT – long June 20 calls at $.78

–          Formed a textbook flag after breaking resistance.

Stock Trades:

FX Trades:

USDJPY fallen off sharply – missed a great entry point.  Still trying to get in but just cant pull the trigger at these levels – ideally there would be strong dollar strength tomorrow providing entry.

NZDUSD is still remarkably strong.  Forming a 6 month head and shoulders – I think this has potential for a big rally in the next two to three months.  Any break above 61 ill look to enter with a target of the high 60’s.

Trade Track

Thursday, 21 May, 2009

Overview:

Big volume on an intra-day reversal day gives some pretty bearish price action.  Weakness was lead by financials; I have taken bearish financial positions accordingly.  Although SP500 held 900 I think there is reasonable argument for further weakness for the rest of the week.

Support at 875 resistance at 950

New Trades

Option trades:

SNDK – long June 14 puts at $1.14

–          Rolled off resistance, looks like it could retest recent lows.

IAG – long  June 10 calls at $0.83

–          Taking a position to benefit from rising gold prices

NTRS – long June 45 puts at $0.90

–          Increasing short exposure to financials

FMX – long June 35 calls at $0.85

–          Broke through a major fib level, tight stop below the fib level.

Stock Trades:

FX Trades:

USDJPY fallen off sharply – missed a great entry point.  Will decide over the day whether to enter into the trade or risk further fall in prices for a potential pull back.

Trade Track