BlackReef Holdings

Thursday, 28^th May, 2009

Overview:

After a strong rally on Tuesday equities reversed half of their gains today closing down 1.5 – 1.8%.

Story of the day was the long term treasury rates which seem to be going parabolic.  I think they have gone too far and Bernanke will have to make a move.  Hoping for a continuation in the rally tomorrow so I can pick up some puts for a reversal on Saturday. 

New Trades

Option trades:

AZO – Long June 145 Puts at $1.80

–          Head and shoulders

ORCL – Long June 18 Puts at $0.30

–          Head and shoulders

PCU – Long June 20 Puts at $1.15

–          Anticpatory breakout

PCLN – Long June 100 Puts at $3.00

–          Hitting topside resistance.

Stock Trades:

FX Trades:

USDJPY strengthened again having rallying from 93.75 to 95.25 in the past 3 days.  Currently hanging around the 95.25 50% retracement will look to make a trade with a break above 95.50 or 94.90.

NZDUSD finally had a retracement but only to its 23% retracement.  Until it hits the 38.2% or even better 60.60 Ill leave it.  A break above 0.625 will see me enter hard..

Cable had a slight retracement consistent with overall dollar strength however still not enough to warrant an entry.  Will have to wait for a break above its highs or Ill enter if it finds support at 1.59.

Trade Track

Saturday, 23^rd May, 2009

Overview:

Equities flat lined for most of the session until the last 30 mins where a reasonable sell off occurred.  Although the markets were relatively unchanged it was a terrible trading day for the option account.  Delta exploded to over 200.  I noticed this with about 30 mins to go.  Loaded up on a couple of puts and managed to get delta down to 60 by close.

New Trades

Option trades:

EMC – long 3 June 11 Puts

–          Test of support and major fib level

GWW – long 2 June 70 Puts

–          Head and shoulders

NOV – long 1 June 36 Call

–          Coiled at support looking to break higher.

Closed TRV and SNDK.

Stock Trades:

FX Trades:

USDJPY retraced nearly a big figure to 94.76.  This could be the best entry I suspect.  Monday will be odd as US is closed so could be some odd movements.

NZDUSD carried higher last night all the way to 0.62.  Technically speaking its broken the neckline.  I think a push to 0.65 is in order.  I think will enter half on Monday morning followed by a quarter at 0.6275 and 0.6350 taking profits at 0.65 0.66 and evaluate then.  Price projection is 70 but I am not sure I would trade that.

Sterling seems to be finding strength against all major crosses.  I think a good trade this week will be buy sterling against yen but sell usd against yen.

Trade Track